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"Houston Region Economic Outlook and 2017 Job Forecast"

DECEMBER 12, 2016
Patrick Jankowski
Senior Vice President of Research, Greater Houston Partnership


Listed below are highlights from the luncheon and forecast presentation:

  • From December 2014 to October 2016, Houston's energy industry lost -65,900 jobs.
  • Houston metro gross domestic product down from $522 billion in 2014 to $503 billion in 2015.
  • Recovery from downturn in oil industry has begun; the worst is over.
  • Major indicators show that economy is turning around, including WTI, rig counts, and among others purchasing managers index.
  • The recovery will take on the shape of a bathtub, a long bottom and then a quick rebound with rapid growth.
  • All sectors will gain jobs in 2017, but the following three:
    1. energy: -3,500 lost jobs (energy needs to see $60 oil for hiring to begin)
    2. construction: -16,000 lost jobs
    3. information: -200 lost jobs
  • In total, Houston is forecasted to gain +29,700 new jobs in 2017, including 9,800 from health care; 8,700 from hotels, bars, restaurants; 6,200 from government; 4,900 from administrative support; 4,500 from retail; and among others 3,000 from manufacturing.
  • Houston's economy continues to grow alongside its population growth of about 120,000, half of which comes from the immigration of new people into Houston.
  • Dr. Thomas Swift, Chief Economist of American Chemistry Council, also highlighted that the expansion of the national economy, while in its 8th inning, is likely to go into extra innings.
  • Dr. Swift explained that four factors are major indicators of economic expansion or recession: real personal income, less transfer payments, real business sales, industrial production, and non-farm payroll; of these four indicators, only industrial production is declining, all others are growing.


Quarterly Reports

HOUSTON

Q2 2017 Office Market Report

Q2 2017 Industrial Market Report

Q2 2017 Retail Market Report

SAN ANTONIO

Q2 2017 Office Market Report

Q2 2017 Industrial Market Report

AUSTIN

Q2 2017 Office Market Report

Q2 2017 Industrial Market Report

 

Industrial Submarket Spotlight

Houston Northwest Submarket July 2017

Houston Southeast Submarket June 2017

 

Office Submarket Spotlight

San Antonio Northwest Submarket August 2017

 

Sublease Digest

Houston Office July 2017

Houston Office June 2017

Houston Office May 2017

Houston Office April 2017

Houston Office March 2017

Houston Industrial March 2017

 

Monthly Snapshots

HOUSTON

Houston Office August 2017

Houston Industrial August 2017

Houston Retail August 2017

AUSTIN

Austin Office August 2017

Austin Industrial August 2017

SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio Office June 2017

San Antonio Industrial June 2017

 

Market Insight

Market Insight

 

Monthly Snapshots (Historical)

 

Houston Office June 2017

Houston Industrial June 2017

 

Houston Retail June 2017

Houston Retail March 2017

Houston Office March 2017

Houston Industrial March 2017

 

San Antonio Office May 2017

San Antonio Industrial May 2017

 

Austin Office June 2017

 

Austin Industrial June 2017

 

Data InSight

Data InSight

 

Quarterly Reports (Historical)

HOUSTON

Q1 2017 Office Market Report

Q1 2017 Industrial Market Report

Q4 2016 Office Market Report

Q1 2017 Retail Market Report

 

SAN ANTONIO

Q1 2017 Office Market Report

 

​Q1 2017 Industrial Market Report

AUSTIN

Q1 2017 Office Market Report

Q1 2017 Industrial Market Report

 

SoundBytes

May 22, 2017

May 11, 2017

April 20, 2017

March 28, 2017

 

Resources

I-35 Corridor Activity Map

The New #CREcosystem Refresh - featuring contributions from Larry Koestler, VP of Marketing