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2017 Houston Economic Outlook Summary

March 28, 2017
Patrick Jankowski
Senior Vice President of Research, Greater Houston Partnership


Below are five highlights from the SIOR luncheon and forecast presentation:

1) Per the U.S. Census Bureau, the nine-county Houston metro area reported 125,005 new residents from July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016, and Houston ranks fifth in the 10 most populous metro areas in the country as of July 1, 2016.

2) Indicators that the worst is now in the rearview mirror include:

  • The Houston Purchasing Managers Index, a leading indicator for the economy, came in at 54.2 in February, signaling economic expansion in metro Houston for the fifth consecutive month.
  • The closely tracked Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count—an indicator of the health of the oil and gas industry as well as a checkpoint into Houston employment growth—is at 809 rigs, over double from its low of 404 rigs reached in May 2016.
  • The NYMEX WTI Spot Prices closed on March 24, 2017 at $47.97/barrel.

3) The top job growth is expected to come from:

  • Healthcare, which was 10.4% of total employment in the Houston metro in 2015
  • Hotels, Restaurants and Bars, a segment that recorded 10,627 jobs as of Q2 2016
  • Government, mainly led by colleges and school districts, which is expected to bring in about 6,200 jobs this year.

4) Three sectors forecasted to cut jobs in 2017:

  • Energy
  • Construction
  • Information

5) We can expect one more soft year in 2017, and by 2018 we will be off the bottom. The jobs forecast is encouraging with the hopes of adding as many as 30,000 new jobs this year. “And if you are in the mindset of shooting for the stars, think sixes: $60/barrel oil, 60,000 jobs and 60,000 relocations,” Jankowski concluded.


Quarterly Reports

HOUSTON

Q2 2017 Office Market Report

Q2 2017 Industrial Market Report

Q2 2017 Retail Market Report

SAN ANTONIO

Q2 2017 Office Market Report

Q2 2017 Industrial Market Report

AUSTIN

Q2 2017 Office Market Report

Q2 2017 Industrial Market Report

 

Industrial Submarket Spotlight

Houston Northwest Submarket July 2017

Houston Southeast Submarket June 2017

 

Office Submarket Spotlight

San Antonio Northwest Submarket August 2017

 

Sublease Digest

Houston Office July 2017

Houston Office June 2017

Houston Office May 2017

Houston Office April 2017

Houston Office March 2017

Houston Industrial March 2017

 

Monthly Snapshots

HOUSTON

Houston Office August 2017

Houston Industrial August 2017

Houston Retail August 2017

AUSTIN

Austin Office August 2017

Austin Industrial August 2017

SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio Office June 2017

San Antonio Industrial June 2017

 

Market Insight

Market Insight

 

Monthly Snapshots (Historical)

 

Houston Office June 2017

Houston Industrial June 2017

 

Houston Retail June 2017

Houston Retail March 2017

Houston Office March 2017

Houston Industrial March 2017

 

San Antonio Office May 2017

San Antonio Industrial May 2017

 

Austin Office June 2017

 

Austin Industrial June 2017

 

Data InSight

Data InSight

 

Quarterly Reports (Historical)

HOUSTON

Q1 2017 Office Market Report

Q1 2017 Industrial Market Report

Q4 2016 Office Market Report

Q1 2017 Retail Market Report

 

SAN ANTONIO

Q1 2017 Office Market Report

 

​Q1 2017 Industrial Market Report

AUSTIN

Q1 2017 Office Market Report

Q1 2017 Industrial Market Report

 

SoundBytes

May 22, 2017

May 11, 2017

April 20, 2017

March 28, 2017

 

Resources

I-35 Corridor Activity Map

The New #CREcosystem Refresh - featuring contributions from Larry Koestler, VP of Marketing