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Spring 2017 Economic Symposium - Is the Oil Bust Really Over? And What Does It Mean for Houston’s Economic Outlook?

May 2017
Robert W. Gilmer, Ph.D.
Director, Institute for Regional Forecasting


Below are the highlights from the Spring 2017 Economic Symposium:

1) The Houston economy started growing again in 2016 and early 2017 with rising oil prices, but then fell back in March and April as prices dropped.

  • The current rig count has more than doubled from the March 2016 low of 404, local sales tax collections are up, and the Houston Purchasing Managers Index suggests solid growth ahead.
  • Houston needs—and anxiously awaits—energy jobs to return and oil prices to be near $65 per barrel.
  • In the last two years, given the seriousness of the recent downturn in oil, Houston’s economy has completely surpassed expectations.

2) Houston’s saving grace has been the U.S. economy performing well, and low natural gas prices fueling a construction explosion along the ship channel. The Gulf Coast petrochemical boom will begin to wind down quickly after 2017 and through 2021.

3) Houston job growth remained positive despite the downturn in the local economy. Recent revisions to Houston’s total payroll employment figures align with the reports of no growth or slow growth in Houston since 2014.

  • Single-family home sales and pricing are up with the strongest growth in sales activity among the high-end single-family markets, which took the brunt of the oil price slump.
  • The multi-family glut portends a grim outlook in 2017, as thousands of new units have continued to be added.

4) The main takeaway for Houston’s office market is that it would benefit most from any recovery of oil-related jobs.


Special Report

Buffalo Bayou Office Flooding

 

Quarterly Reports

HOUSTON

Q2 2017 Office Market Report

Q2 2017 Industrial Market Report

Q2 2017 Retail Market Report

SAN ANTONIO

Q2 2017 Office Market Report

Q2 2017 Industrial Market Report

AUSTIN

Q2 2017 Office Market Report

Q2 2017 Industrial Market Report

 

Industrial Submarket Spotlight

Houston North Submarket September 2017

Houston Northwest Submarket July 2017

Houston Southeast Submarket June 2017

 

Office Submarket Spotlight

San Antonio Northwest Submarket August 2017

 

Sublease Digest

Houston Office September 2017

Houston Office July 2017

Houston Office June 2017

Houston Office May 2017

Houston Office April 2017

Houston Office March 2017

Houston Industrial March 2017

 

Monthly Snapshots

HOUSTON

Houston Office September 2017

Houston Industrial September 2017

Houston Retail August 2017

AUSTIN

Austin Office August 2017

Austin Industrial August 2017

SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio Office September 2017

San Antonio Industrial August 2017

 

Market Insight

Market Insight

 

Monthly Snapshots (Historical)

 

Houston Office August 2017

Houston Industrial August 2017

Houston Office June 2017

Houston Industrial June 2017

Houston Retail June 2017

Houston Retail March 2017

Houston Office March 2017

Houston Industrial March 2017

 

 

San Antonio Office August 2017

San Antonio Office June 2017

San Antonio Industrial June 2017

 

Austin Office June 2017

Austin Industrial June 2017

 

Data InSight

Data InSight

 

Quarterly Reports (Historical)

HOUSTON

Q1 2017 Office Market Report

Q1 2017 Industrial Market Report

Q4 2016 Office Market Report

Q1 2017 Retail Market Report

 

SAN ANTONIO

Q1 2017 Office Market Report

 

​Q1 2017 Industrial Market Report

AUSTIN

Q1 2017 Office Market Report

Q1 2017 Industrial Market Report

 

SoundBytes

May 22, 2017

May 11, 2017

April 20, 2017

March 28, 2017

 

Resources

I-35 Corridor Activity Map

The New #CREcosystem Refresh - featuring contributions from Larry Koestler, VP of Marketing